Goldman Bans Staff Prediction Markets Bets on Finance, Politics

July 9, 2026 - 23:19

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has told its employees they can no longer trade on prediction markets covering finance and politics, marking one of the most direct moves by a major Wall Street firm to address the regulatory questions raised by the rapid growth of event-based wagering.

The ban applies to bets on financial outcomes, political elections, and other policy-related events. Staff are still allowed to place wagers on sports and entertainment, according to an internal memo reviewed by reporters. The policy puts Goldman ahead of many rivals in drawing a clear line between permissible personal bets and those that could create conflicts of interest or run afoul of securities laws.

Prediction markets, where users buy and sell contracts tied to the likelihood of specific events, have exploded in popularity. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket now let people bet on everything from Federal Reserve interest rate decisions to the outcome of presidential elections. Regulators have struggled to keep pace, and Wall Street firms have been forced to craft their own internal rules.

Goldman's move signals that the bank sees bets on financial or political events as too close to its core business. An employee wagering on a Fed rate decision, for example, could be seen as trading on inside information or influencing market sentiment. The policy is effective immediately, and compliance officers will monitor trading activity on approved platforms.

The ban does not extend to casual sports betting or entertainment pools, which the bank views as unrelated to its professional operations. Still, the decision underscores how the blurring line between gambling and financial speculation is forcing traditional institutions to adapt.