ACA enrollment may fall by 5 million people this year, analysis finds

May 19, 2026 - 22:14

The enhanced subsidies, introduced during the pandemic and extended through 2025, made coverage more affordable for low- and middle-income households. Without them, monthly premiums for many enrollees could rise significantly, prompting some to drop their plans altogether. The analysis estimates that total ACA enrollment, which peaked at over 21 million people in 2024, could fall to around 16 million.

The loss of coverage would hit states with high uninsured rates the hardest. Advocates warn that the drop-off could reverse years of progress in reducing the number of Americans without health insurance. Some lawmakers have pushed to restore the subsidies, but efforts have stalled in Congress amid broader budget debates.

For now, consumers who still want coverage can shop for plans during the open enrollment period, which runs through mid-January in most states. But without financial help, many may find the options too expensive to keep.